Christmas sales growth might disappear to foreign online sites

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The Christmas shopping is expected to set new records. But the traditional retail trade run the risk of missing out on the sales growth.

Swedes now expect to spend 25 percent of their Christmas shopping online.
And the online shopping from foreign countries are increasing. Of the 5.4 billion that will be spent online for Christmas – more than a billion is likely go to other countries.


A few days ago HUI released its forecast for the holiday shopping season in Sweden in 2015. It shows that the total December retail market in Sweden is estimated at 75 billion SEK. An increase of 5.0 percent – or approximately 3.6 billion compared to last year.

Today HUI along with PostNord released the e-commerce barometer for Q3 and an outlook for the holiday shopping season online.
Consumers in Sweden estimate that they will shop Christmas gifts for 20.5 billion this year, of which 5.4 billion will be through e-commerce. This means that more than one of four spent Swedish crown this Christmas will be purchased via the Internet. An increase of 26 percent, or 1.1 billion, since last year.

This means a third of the increase in Christmas shopping will never be made in physical stores. The forecasted 3.0 Percent increase in dailies responds to 0.9 billion SEK. Left for the retailers selling durables is a Christmas sales growth of 1.6 billion – or 170 SEK per consumer.

The industry in which it is most common for online purchase are media products, 36 percent of respondents whose most recent purchase was a media product was purchased online, while 14 percent of respondents had purchased beauty / health products online.

At the same time, it is becoming easier for consumers to buy goods from outside Sweden, the Nordic region and even European borders. During the third quarter foreign consumption increased online with 19 percent. Swedes spent more money in Germany (Zalando-effect) compared to the same period last year. However, e-commerce from the United Kingdom and the United States declined slightly.

”There are good prospects for a merry Christmas in general and a good e-commerce Christmas in particular. It is of course positive for the Swedish retail company, but more purchases made online also means a challenge of increased competition from foreign online stores,” says Arne Andersson, e-commerce expert at PostNord.

Christmas shopping is made more earlier. According to the survey, one in four consumers shop most of their presents before 1 December. Among those who will e-shop for Christmas gifts, the share is even bigger. Four out of ten will e-shop for Christmas presents before December. One contributing factor may be the shopping phenomenon’s Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday, which means many shops kick start Christmas shopping with great deals already on the last weekend in November.

There is also a slightly higher proportion that will not involve any Christmas presents at all this year. The percentage has increased from 3 percent in 2014 to 5 percent 2015th

The Swedish retail sales of goods over the Internet increased by 16 percent in the third quarter of 2015. The forecast is that e-commerce with goods will have a turnover of 50 billion SEK 2015th.

Download the full report here.

PostNord’s illustration summary of the Q3-report:

 

infografik_ebarometern_q3_2015